Live physical signals
Hormuz tanker trafficAlert
8%
Only 8% of normal traffic
~50 oil tankers pass through Hormuz daily normally. Right now only 4 are getting through — a 92% drop.
Alert threshold: below 20%
of 90-day baseline · AIS Stream · 2h ago
Affects your gas & groceries
Corn Belt soil moistureWatch
−1.7σ
Significantly drier than normal
−1.7σ means drier than 96% of historical readings. Dry soil stresses crops before harvest.
Leads food prices by 2–4 months
anomaly from mean · NASA SMAP · 6h ago
Affects your grocery bill
NE winter heat demandWatch
+28%
28% above-average probability
Weather models show higher odds of a cold Northeast winter — drawing down natural gas storage early.
Signal fires 3–5 months early
above-avg probability · Open-Meteo · 1h ago
Affects your heating bill
Top forecast · Hormuz → California gasoline
Wholesale gasoline price pressure
Confidence 73%
p=0.003
Granger p-value: 0.003
0.3% chance this relationship is random. Standard threshold is 5%. This is 17× stronger — a very reliable causal signal.
Statistically significant
Granger p-value
8 wks
Causal lag: 8 weeks
When Hormuz traffic drops, CA gas prices respond ~8 weeks later. The algorithm discovered this — we didn't assume it. This is your warning window.
Causal lag
372
Training observations
Trained on 372 weekly data points covering 2019–2026 including the 2019 tanker attacks, COVID collapse, and 2022 inflation spike.
Training obs
73%
Historical accuracy: 73%
In 73% of past cases this signal moved prices in the predicted direction. All forecasts — hits and misses — are logged publicly.
vs ~55% for Wall Street macro
Historical accuracy
Ships carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly stopped — traffic at 8% of normal. California uses a unique gasoline blend (CARB) that depends on this crude. Granger test (p=0.003) confirms this signal leads CA gas prices by 8 weeks. Quantile regression: median +4.2% within 3 months, 90th percentile +17%.
Traffic −92%→Crude shortfall→CARB blend squeeze→Price pressure
4 weeks
3 months
6 months
When will you feel it?
Now
signal
4 weeks
3 months
6 months
Vs. 1 year ago
CA gas price
Grocery basket
$598 → $727*
* forecast median at 3 months · grey = 1yr ago actual
Your personal impact
$0 – $1,079
How is this calculated?
Miles ÷ MPG × gas price × forecast range, plus grocery impact (0.4 correlation). Low = p50 scenario, High = p90 worst case.
estimated additional costs · 6 months
Plain English
"Hormuz at 8% → leads CA gas by 8 weeks (p=0.003) → median +4.2% in 3 months"
What should you do?
Lock in a gas rewards card
4–5% back on gas saves ~$18/mo today — more as prices rise.
Do nowStock non-perishable pantry staples
Grains and canned goods track corn prices. Buy 2–3 months ahead.
Do nowBuffer your 6-month budget
Algorithm median: up to +$1,079 additional cost for your profile.
This weekCheck your home heating contract
Winter nat gas signal elevated. Fixed-rate lock may be available now.
This monthForecast withheld — Black Sea wheat corridor
Current conditions fall outside well-calibrated historical regimes. Confidence too low for a reliable projection. The model knows what it doesn't know.